BEIJING - A shadow has been cast over China's economy amid a resurgence of novel coronavirus infections. About 50 cities are under lockdown, factories are closed and more than 200 million people are forced to limit their activities.
With the National Congress of the Communist Party of China expected to give President Xi Jinping a third term in office in mid-October, Xi's administration is giving more priority to controlling the epidemic than the economy.
This past weekend was a three-day holiday for the Mid-Autumn Festival. On Saturday at Beijing Fengtai Station, one of the capital's gateways, few commuters could be seen.
Beijing authorities had asked some 22 million residents to stay in the city as much as possible during the holiday. As the host city for the Party Congress, Beijing is on high alert for the arrival and spread of infections linked to the movement of people.
According to China's Transport Ministry, 24 million people were expected to travel a day during the holiday, down 32 percent from last year and 53 percent from pre-pandemic 2019 due to strict government restrictions. From Saturday, passengers on high-speed trains and flights had to undergo a PCR test within 48 hours of departure. If travelers are infected from the city they are visiting, they must be quarantined for several days before returning home.
Compared to previous years, the trend towards cheaper and shorter trips has become prominent. Economists say the continued struggles of the tourism and travel-related industries, which account for a tenth of the gross domestic product, will weigh on the economic recovery.
In China, the phrase "Golden September and Silver October" is used for these autumn months as consumption increases for shopping and travel during long holidays such as the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day of the People's Republic of China. However, the extension of the lockdown has sharply increased the number of residents who are under restrictions on their daily lives and even going to work.
The inland city of Chengdu in Sichuan province has become the center of the auto industry, but on September 1, the first day of a lockdown there, Sweden's Volvo Cars AB temporarily closed its factory.
A total of 49 cities in China were under full or partial lockdown as of Sept. 6, according to Nomura Holdings Inc. The number of affected residents rose 80 percent from the previous week to nearly 290 million, or 1 of them. Every 5 people in China. These cities and regions account for 24.5% of the country's GDP.
The scale of the impact is roughly the same as the lockdown in Shanghai from late March to late May, although comparisons are not easily made because the calculation methods are different.
China is in a difficult position to meet the government's GDP growth target of around 5.5 percent for 2022.
Naoto Saito, chief researcher at Daiwa Institute of Research Ltd., estimates that the figure will be around 4 percent, but if the economic stagnation caused by the infection deepens, "the figure could drop to 2 percent." Is."
